As unpredictable as ever

In the past few days, there has been excited debate over the recently held elections. I purposely avoided much of the conversation involving predictions of results (including the exit polls). After all, if there is one thing that we learn from history, it is that no one can predict what button the common man will press in that brief moment of card-boarded seclusion. This has been reiterated by one of the most fruitful results for the Congress party. As for me, I was curious about two things, one, will the Narendra Modi-Varun Gandhi strong Hindutva undercurrents in the BJP campaign bear fruit, and two, how the Muslims, particularly in UP and some of the southern left strongholds, will vote.

I was quite sceptical about the secular credentials of the majority community, and had expected more Hindutva bi-polarisation. We were first served with the controversial Varun Gandhi Pilibhit speech, a smart political move in the micro battleground, but which took on new dimensions with the advent of the media. Whether it was meant to cater to a much larger audience, thus enhancing polarity and assuming representation of the hidden feelings of the majority, we will never know. But even if it was supposed to, the message is loud and clear. The fact the every seat outside Gujarat that Narendra Modi campaigned for ended in a loss for the BJP sends out a clear message against hard line and right wing ideology, particularly in the current political scenario. Calling this outcome a beginning of a gradual decline of religion based vote bank politics would undoubtedly be optimistic and idealistic. Some right wing parties may have done well. Maybe the ones that didn’t lacked strong leadership and a broad based political strategy. For all we know the next election might throw up a completely different picture.

But Gujarat has spoken. They continue to wallow in their blood soaked industrialisation and development. To them the balance weighs heavily towards the gain of one community at the expense of another and this indifferent attitude has been demonstrated time and again. A man clearly culpable of genocide, and who has not shown an iota of remorse (which seems to be a matter of pride for him), still remains the king of his Gujarati bastion. The logical inference would be that as long as a party (or person) does enough (infrastructure/development wise) for a majority community, then that majority will not only remain silent, but also vote that party to power repeatedly irrespective of suppression and oppression of any other minority community. Any man or woman capable of efficiently running a state and with good oratory skills can play this political move in a large number of states in this country.

The Muslim vote seems to have swung in favour of Congress even with increased availability of non-BJP (alliance) options. The general populace too seemed to find some solace and stability with the Congress party in the centre. The extent to which this feeling was a result of good campaigning by Congress party workers (including the Gandhi siblings), we will never know. One good move by the party was the removal of Sajjan Kumar and Jagdish Tytler from their respective seats in Delhi. What makes this move even smarter is that such a move hardly influences the indictment and punishment of ‘guilty’ individuals (after all Sajjan Kumar’s brother stood on his behalf), but still helps creat an image of a remorseful Congress which comes out stronger in the backdrop of Pilibhit & Ghodhra. Touche to the Indian politician.

Monmohan Singh’s character also plays a major role in influencing the psyche of the voter. An economist and educationist with a pleasing personality and a simple manner about him is the only prime minister, after Jawaharlal Nehru, to be re-elected after finishing a five year term. Does India want to be represented (even if only in name) by a man whose image still remains free from political dirt (Disregarding the recent hijack commotion)? Did India elect a man who showcases her intelligence, diversity and humility? I certainly think so.