Are We On the Road to War?

After encouragingly restricting action to strong arm diplomacy between India, Pakistan and the US, the response to the attacks by India seems to be increasingly heading in the direction of war between the two neighbours. After initial giving in by the Pakistani establishment followed by assurances of concrete action against suspected elements within their country, Pakistan has failed to undertake any concrete steps in fulfilling its promises. Instead, what has ensued on both sides is a heated rhetoric tilting in favour of a military confrontation between the two countries. Both countries have slowly but surely begun to up the preparedness of their respective armies and have ensured that their rhetoric has captured the same. Thus, what seems to have begun is a troubling journey down a road leading us to war.

The prospect of war between India and Pakistan brings forward the ultimate concern, that of a nuclear attack. Logically speaking, a war between the two countries should end with either dropping a nuclear bomb on the other. Victory is the sole aim of any party in a war and in this case there should be no reason why either should not consider attacking the other with a nuclear bomb in order to ensure the same. Agreed that both countries probably consider this as a last option, but there is little doubt that should the dynamic shift to the point of demanding nuclear action, neither country would desist. With the increasing prospect of war, can we then assume that there is an increasing prospect of a nuclear war ahead of us?

This writer would like to fantasise that such an outcome is unlikely. However, I do believe it would be unlikely only if actual war did not break out between the two sides. We then need to understand if war is imminent at this point or not. Going by the present situation, war seems more or less imminent. However, there have been moments in the past where both countries have resisted going to war despite military tension being much more hightened than at present. India and Pakistan managed to avoid war despite the clear intentions of India after the Parliament attacks in 2001. Without going into the dynamics of that outcome, one can atleast understand that there are circumstances within which war can still be avoided between the two countries.

However, lets assume that India, while not engaging in war, would perceive military action as the only solution to effectively tackle terrorist elements in Pakistan in order to ensure that no further attacks take place on Indian soil (a proposition similar to what the US adopted post 9/11). It would then appear prudent that India conduct surgical air strikes against specific targets in Pakistan. It is another matter if India is actually capable of undertaking such high precision and covert engagments. However, such action would ensure that India achieves its objectives of ensuring its security without engaging in an all out war against Pakistan. It is also a matter of concern (and speculation) as to what would be Pakistan's response to such attacks. Does such an option then suggest that we are in for a long drawn out proxy war with Pakistan on the same lines as the one being undertaken by the US in Afghanistan and Iraq? More importantly, would it be practical, both politically and strategically, for India to consider such an option?